Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Nuclear Nostalgia and Re-Coal-ections


Just a mile and a half west of our house is the "Nipsco" Bailly coal fired generating station. The photo above is Google satellite map showing distance from our house. Nipsco ("Northern Indiana Public Service Corporation"), our local electric and gas utility company, just retired the plant at the end of May 2018. It seems like things may be just a bit quieter now, but it always has been a very quiet place anyway. Never saw or smelled anything from it, but it seems good to know it has closed.

Here is a Northwest Indiana Times article about the plant closing: NWI Times article

Nipsco still has two other coal fired plants: one in Michigan City (Indiana), about 8 miles east of us, with its distinctive parabolic cooling tower sticking out on the eastern boundary of the National Park. We cruised around the Michigan City plant on the evening harbor cruise on our anniversary last summer. Romantic, no? The other Nipsco coal plant is inland to the south near the tiny town of Wheatfield, just south of Kouts, where we used to go to church. We would see the stacks as we drove down highway 49 to Kouts.

The Bailly plant was 604 MW, including two units: A 190 MW opened in 1962, and a 413 MW unit opened in 1968, when I was a freshman in engineering school.

Around the time the second unit was starting up, Nipsco proposed building a 644 MW nuclear generating plant at Bailly, a Boiling Water Reactor, which apparently started construction in 1974, but met opposition and got cancelled.

Here's the wikipedia article on the nuke plant: Bailly Wik

Now, the Bailly plant site has only a backup gas turbine peaking plant, a peaceful neighbor down the beach.

If they had gone ahead with the nuclear plant, we could have it for our neighbor. I think I'd rather have a nuclear plant there, than a coal plant. A few, small, rare releases of a little radiation would be preferable to continuously emitting tons of carbon and other junk.

Lyn and I went to a presentation on the Nike missile program at the National Park visitor center last year. The National Park HQ was a Nike missile base back in the 1960s.. On the map above, it's just south of us, across hwy 12 (the clearing south of of 12, west of the road that goes from Dune Acres).

Nike missiles were intended to defend against Soviet bombers. Some Nikes even had nuclear warheads, so they only had to get close to a bomber to destroy it. Now that's a scary thought: Nuclear tipped missiles launching out over Lake Michigan.

Just south of that is the preserved Bailly Homestead farm of a pioneer local family. The Bailly generating plant was named for Joseph Bailly, a trapper and early settler.

And that's some local history from these parts. From an early trapper, settler, farmer, to nuclear missiles.

Seems like I lived through the coal age, the nuclear age, and the natural gas age. I start to feel like a relic, looking back on past, obsolete technology.

When I began my engineering career in 1972, I worked for the engineering/construction firm Bechtel, designing nuclear power plants. I worked on a plant in Georgia called Vogtle until the client ran out of funds and the plant was shelved for a few years, then on the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, units 2 & 3 (which we musically referred to as "SONGS"). Those units got completed, and operated for 30 years or so, but were recently decommissioned after a failed repair.

Then I worked on Korea Nuclear Units 5 & 6. Technology export was a big part of the project. We were training Korean engineers while we were designing the plant. I think those units are still running. South Korea is mostly nuclear powered, and in turn is now exporting nuclear technology.

My father in law also worked for Bechtel, as a project manager. He had completed some big coal fired generating plants, like Four Corners and Mojave. The coal age was ending, though. His generation, of coal fired generation, was ending. Nuclear was taking over. I thought nuclear was the coming thing. Seemed like a good thing at the time. We thought we were doing a good thing for the planet. Still think so.

But then the "Three Mile Island" nuclear plant accident happened in Pennsylvania.

I saw that nuclear power had a rough future in the US, and left Bechtel for the City of Burbank, where, among other projects, we "repowered" an old retired oil fired steam turbine using waste heat from an existing gas turbine, getting 10MW for "free" from heat that was otherwise just gas turbine exhaust. Unfortunately, after I left Burbank, they didn't much run it, but it did provide backup local generating capacity that facilitated negotiating for good deals on purchased power. Using that strategy, they could buy excess coal fired power from those distant plants in Arizona, Colorado, and Utah (some of them built by my father in law) cheaper than they could generate locally, even with the highly efficient plant I built for them.

When I left Burbank, I went to UCLA, where they had ambitions of building a similar "combined cycle cogeneration" plant, to also produce steam and chilled water from waste heat. We did build that plant: a 49MW cogeneration central chiller plant, that today is central to UCLA's operation. UCLA now generates most of its own power, replacing power formerly purchased from LADWP.

So, I spent much of my career building alternatives to coal-fired electric generation, with limited success.

Could nuclear come back, to save the planet from climate change? https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-nuclear-power-climate-change_us_5bbe08b0e4b01470d057b4c0

I don't think I will live to see that.

The sad missed opportunity, is that the one way Trump really could "Make America Great Again" is by convincing his loyal throngs that climate change is real, that the regulatory shackles should be released from America's nuclear industry, and America should lead rebuilding a nuclear world . A few of his tweets, and some key appointees, is all it would take. Trump's supporters would lap it up, and some of his opposition would agree..

He could find common ground between industrialists and environmentalists. And he alone possibly could find that common ground. Think of that: Trump could save the planet. I don't think any other president will be in the position to do that. But I think his window is closing, and he shows no sign of that sort of leadership. Instead, he's tilting at windmills, fighting a losing battle to save coal, and winning the battle to kill the planet.

Nipsco's stated plan is to turn to wind and solar to replace coal. They plan to phase out the other two coal plants by 2028. I hope they succeed. My guess is, they will end up with a lot of natural gas firing, or end up delaying the coal phase-out, but we can hope. There are a lot of wind turbines south of here. Gonna need way more. Might work. But this old nuclear engineer feels a bit like a fossil.

The Most Famous Singer You Never Heard Of


Thurl Ravenscroft:   The Most Famous Singer You Never Heard Of

Ever wondered who that distinctive bass is who sings that "Grinch Song" that you likely hear repeatedly every Holiday season?  You know:  "You're a mean one, Mr. Grinch . . ."  Feel like you should recognize him, but can't quite place him?

The song is from a 1966 half hour CBS TV cartoon Christmas special, "How the Grinch Stole Christmas."

The singer was actually inadvertently uncredited (basses just never get any respect - even though most men are basses).  His name was Thurl Ravenscroft.   Boris Karloff is the voice of the Grinch, but the song is sung by Ravenscroft.

Ravenscroft is also familiar, but not famous, as the uncredited, anonymous voice of Tony The Tiger (Kellogg's Frosted Flakes, "Theyy'rrre  Grrrreat). Notice the facial resemblance between Thurl and Tony.

If you've been to a Disney park, you've heard him in the Haunted Mansion, Country Bear Jamboree, Mark Twain Riverboats, Pirates of the Caribbean, Disneyland Railroad and Tiki Room. (What a great name for an actor in the Haunted Mansion - Ravenscroft)

In this video, he talks about making the Haunted Mansion attraction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nhox48qhnxU

He got his start as one of The Mellowmen, who backed up Bing Crosby, Frainkie Lane, Spike Jones, Rosemary Clooney (Ravenscrift is the bass in her #1 hit "This Ole House", and also on Stuart Hamblin's original version) and other Big Band era singers.

Here's a Mellowmen album:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkXS1FKCjUY

The Mellowmen can be heard in several Disney films, including Alice in Wonderland. and Lady and the Tramp.

Ravenscroft is the bass in Bobby Vee's 1960 hit  "Devil or Angel."

It's astounding how many familiar songs, movies, Disney rides, TV shows and commercials Ravenscroft's distinctive voice is heard in, all without you hearing his distinctive and unforgettable name.  Now you know.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurl_Ravenscroft

Saturday, August 3, 2019

Bin Laden has Won




18 years later, Al Queada has won.

It took a while, but the Al Queada, Taliban, ISIS strategy of sowing chaos  has worked.

Western democracy has been destroyed.

The USA, Britain, France, Germany, the European Union, NATO, all in tatters.  Ungovernable.  Division so strong that no party can govern, no course can get a majority.  The nations are so divided, little substantial unified action is possible or even attempted.

Putin (Biblical Gog to many) has conquered the West.  He has gotten all he could have wished for, and more. In some of the same ways: By sowing the seeds of division, discord and chaos.

The US is leaving Syria, Afghanistan is next.  Russia and Islamics have pretty much free rein.

Russia and Saudi Arabia have shown that they can murder and assassinate anywhere in the world with impunity.

Free trade is ending as the nations retreat into isolationism, embargoes, sanctions, trade wars. Treaties are shunned. International cooperation, even to the limited previous extent, all but abandoned.

The US piles up debt at an ever greater rate, putting the inevitable reckoning ever closer.  Instead of saving in the last several good years, like the Keynesian Joseph in Egypt, the US has emptied its storehouses, leaving no resources to deal with the next downturn.

The aim of Bin Laden, and of ISIS, was to draw the West into an apocalyptic conflict with Islam (see note 1).  It is working.

It is fairly easy to connect the dots from 9/11 to this collapse:

The immediate effect was to draw the US into two wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq, which drained it of resources, and either partly resulted in, or at least exacerbated, the 2008-2009 recession.

It also heightened fears of immigrants and foreigners. Security on travel at airports and borders was tightened.

Then, the collapse of Iraq, the resulting rise of ISIS, the overflow of problems into Syria, with US withdrawal, led to mass migration of refugees, to Europe.

The reaction to economic problems, terrorism and the refugee invasion was xenophobic closing of borders.  The open border EU was not ready for the influx.  Britain's reaction was to leave the EU, though that is mired in political division.

In Germany, right wing factions fractured Merkel's majority because of reaction to taking in so many middle eastern refugees and a weakening economic outlook.

The French have turned against Macron's Internationalist policies.

In the US, the same fears of foreign immigrants and terrorists, an aversion to Obama's proposal to take in thousands of refugees from ISIS, coupled with fears they could be sneaking in across the southern border, added to existing concerns about border security, to get the issue to the tipping point where it swung the Presidential election.  This issue, tied directly back to 9/11, has now stopped governance.

The extreme societal division over this xenophobia, has democratic decision making grid-locked.  In the USA Constitutional checks and balances have been abandoned in favor of rule by emergency declaration.

The nations fiddle, as the planet burns. Pacific island nations demand an end to coal, while Trump tilts at windmills.

Trump tries to contain the spread of nuclear weapons to Iran and North Korea, while letting the existing treaty with Russia lapse, and having already abandoned the international treaty with Iran. 

What this means, or what it may lead to, I have no idea.  Many of my fellow Bible students find prophetic fulfillment in this, but in conflicting ways, seeing it both as a precursor to Armageddon, and at the same time, a nationalistic victory for border security, morality, and support for Zionism.  They like to see Gog as poised to invade, while at the same time seeing the UK-USA as God's chosen forces saving Israel.  Possibly, though how both could be true makes little sense to me, and I have a hard time seeing current leadership as divinely ordained.

It does seem to make the need for divine intervention clear.  Very clearly, humankind is not capable of solving its problems.  

If you do not see divine intervention as a likely possibility, you should be aware that all sides in the conflict include some with Messianic visions that fuel their positions.  Not just three visions (Christian, Islamic & Jewish) but multiple views within each of those religions; sometimes even conflicting views within individuals.  There will be no compromising.  There is no common ground.  Many actively oppose peace, including some in ALL of those religions.  So, secular peacemakers have some substantial roadblocks.

Am I exaggerating the negative to write this Jeremiad?  Possibly.  Feel free to propose a non-miraculous way out.  Know that for every one of you who may be thinking that way, there's another thinking, "Yes! Apocalypse Now!  Bring it on!  He hasn't said the half of it."

I had drafted this blog last year, but had delayed posting it, because I don't have a conclusion or ending.  Just posting doom and gloom isn't usually my style.  But it is what it is.  Draw your own conclusions.  

Note 1.  Many will notice startling similarities between the Islamic apocalyptic goals and Christian expectations:   https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/